We asked ace MLB blogger Andrew Rotondi to come back and break down the AL MVP race for us. We think you’ll enjoy it.
About a month ago—when the Red Sox were leading the AL East—I questioned the MLB Pennant race, stating “Barring a monumental crash by one of the current playoff leaders, there will be no excitement in the last few weeks of the MLB season…” Well, thank you Boston Red Sox (and Atlanta Braves) for providing me with extreme entertainment throughout the month of September.
Now that I got that off my chest, let’s take a look at how I feel the American League Most Valuable Player race should finish.
5: Jose Bautista
I disagreed when Alex Rodriguez won the MVP in 2003, which was more a reward for his big offensive numbers on the last-place Texas Rangers, than his importance to the teams’ success. In ’03 A-Rod’s numbers were impressive, but below his 2001-02 numbers when he led the league in home runs twice, total bases twice, and RBI’s once. (Quick aside— Carlos Delgado, Jorge Posada, Shannon Stewart, and David Ortiz rounded-out the top five for MVP voting in 2003.)
Bautista’s last two seasons are reminiscent to A-Rod’s 2001-02. Bautista has led the league in home runs the last two seasons and led the league in walks, slugging percentage, and OPS this season. There is no question that he has been the best offensive player in Baseball the past two years, but how valuable is somebody to their team when they finish 16 games out of first place? Really, how much worse would Toronto be if they didn’t have Bautista? Would they have finished 20 games out of first? Big deal. Bautista’s contributions to the Jays finishing second-to-last instead of last do not warrant him an MVP. If the MLB creates an award for best hitter, he would win hands-down; but more on that later.
4: Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera flew under-the-radar for much of the season, mainly because his 30 home runs, 105 RBI’s, and .344 batting average are somewhat expected. Cabrera was overshadowed by his teammate Justin Verlander over the summer, and coming off a down month in July. His importance to the Tigers’ lineup cannot be denied.
Cabrera’s 2011 league ranks are as follows: BA (1st), OBP (1st), SLG (2nd), OPS (2nd), R (4th). He is the centerpiece in a lineup that is otherwise average, and he led them to the playoffs with an unbelievable 25 game finish of: .442/.547/.791.
3: Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander could be the first pitcher to win the AL MVP since 1992.
Look, Verlander has had a remarkable season, winning more games (24) than anybody in the AL since Bob Welch won 27 in 1990. He single handedly kept the Tigers in the AL Central Race over the summer before they went on a late season surge, going 20-6 in September to win their division by 15 games.
If somebody starts a petition to create the Babe Ruth Award for the best hitter to go along with the Cy Young Award, allowing for all players (position and pitchers) to have a fair chance at the MVP, I’ll sign it. But until that happens I have a hard time giving a pitcher the MVP; one, because they have their own award of excellence and two, because there are too many games to be played other than the 30-to-35 starts a pitcher makes. Think about it, if a starting pitcher makes every turn in a 5-man rotation, he will make roughly 32 starts—that’s 19.7% of the season. How can somebody be your most valuable player when he appears in less than one-fifth of the team’s games?
If Pedro Martinez didn’t win the MVP in 1999 then a pitcher should not win it anytime soon. Pedro was in the middle of one of the most dominating pitching streaks in MLB history in ’99, when he struck-out 313 batters with a 2.07 ERA during the height of the steroid-era—his ERA was 1.74 the following year, or 2 runs lower than the next qualifying pitcher (Roger Clemens). The MVP in ’99 was given to Ivan Rodriguez because he was a position player who reached the magical 30/100 marks (granted, as a catcher). But I get why many BBWAA-ers have had a difficult time giving a pitcher the MVP. It hasn’t happened often—Dennis Eckersley is the only pitcher to win the award in the last two decades, and that’s because he appeared in 69 games (as a closer he finished 65 games, saving 51). Mariano Rivera has received some MVP-credit during his career; getting votes in 9 of his 17 seasons, but never finishing higher than 9th. In the two seasons he did finish 9th, he appeared in 74 and 71 games (roughly 45% of the season). So the trend continues: unless you make an impact in a high percentage of your team’s games, you shouldn’t win the MVP. Sorry, Verlander.
2: Curtis Granderson
Granderson was the clear MVP choice in my mind on August 31, but a miserable September caused him to fall out of the top spot. Curtis batted just .205/.300/.375 in 24 games in September, with only 3 home runs and 12 RBI’s—numbers that are nowhere close to his previous five month surge. His consistency over those months were enough for him to finish second in home runs (41) and first in RBI’s (119), and should earn him a second-place finish in MVP. His break-out season was even more important to the Yankees because Alex Rodriguez missed 63 games with lingering injuries, and was nowhere close to himself in the 99 he did play in. Mark Teixeira also had a down season, posting the worst batting average of his career, and worst on base percentage since his rookie season. While Jeter was struggling to reach 3,000 hits (seems like an eternity ago, especially in light of his phenomenal second half) Curtis was the only stable force in the middle of Yankees lineup. Add in the fact that Granderson plays a premium position, stole 25 bases, and played in 156 games; his 2011 season was one of the best in Yankee history.
Winner: Jacoby Ellsbury
Ellsbury became the first Red Sox player in history to reach 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
Tough to say anything good about the Red Sox after their epic collapse, but what a turnaround the 2011 season was for Ellsbury—who played in only 18 games in 2010 because of complications with broken ribs. His physical and mental toughness were questioned by the Boston media last year, and even his teammates (Kevin Youkilis being one of them) questioned his commitment to the team. Expectations for Jacoby were minimal entering 2011, despite his exceptional talent and the fact that he led the league in stolen bases the two years prior to his injury. Ellsbury showed plenty of toughness down the stretch for the Red Sox in 2011, even if the rest of his teammates didn’t.
Adrian Gonzalez—unanimous choice for MVP at the All Star Break—batted .183 against the Yankees this season, and .131 versus the Rays. I bet the Red Sox would have appreciated his .486 batting average he had against the Orioles in some of the Yankees or Rays games as the team was folding in September.
Carl Crawford—a $142 million man—had the worst season of his career. In September, Crawford batted just .264 with an embarrassing .295 on base percentage, while showing none of his gold-glove skills in left field.
David Ortiz—an icon who may have played his last game in a Red Sox uniform—had just one home run with 8 RBI’s in September.
Kevin Youkilis—an emotional leader for the Red Sox—was only able to play 22 games over the final two months due to injuries.
So while the rest of his teammates were non-existent, Ellsbury batted .358/.400/.667 down the stretch in September, with 8 home runs and 21 RBI’s in 27 games. His 11 doubles and 1.067 OPS (as a leadoff hitter) also led the team during that stretch.
Let’s take a minute to compare:
Jacoby Ellsbury 2011: .321/.376/.552, 32 home runs, 105 RBI’s, 119 runs
Miguel Cabrera 2011: .344/.448/.586, 30 home runs, 105 RBI’s, 111 runs
Pretty similar, right? When you think of Miguel Cabrera, you think of a power-hitting run producer. Well, Ellsbury provided the Red Sox with roughly the same run production as Cabrera this season, except from the leadoff spot while playing a gold-glove caliber center field. He was also one of the few Red Sox who showed some chutzpah while the rest of the team complained about travel schedules and night games.
Prediction: Justin Verlander will win the MVP this season because—like it was for Dustin Pedroia in 2008—it’s the trendy thing to do.
Make sure to follow Andrew Rotondi on Twitter @Yankees_talk as he breaks down all things baseball.
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